League One, game week 8 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Stockport County the bigger side: 4th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Stockport County takes 1.93 points a game, Peterborough United 0.75 -- the block form is Stockport County's. +0.79 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stockport County's favour: Stockport County takes 1.79 a game at home over the last two seasons, Peterborough United 1.00 away. Stockport County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Peterborough United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Peterborough United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stockport County is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 56%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (24 of 50 and 21 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Stockport County's -- two goals clear in 16 of 50, against 10 of 50; Stockport County finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 81 after the 75th; Peterborough United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 67 after the 75th, and Stockport County concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Stockport County 1.98 goals expected, Peterborough United 1.14, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Stockport County 1.76 (57%), the draw 4.63 (22%), Peterborough United 4.66 (21%). The market's averages: 1.40, 5.00 and 6.40. The widest gap is on Peterborough United: the market offers 6.40 against our 4.66. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.66 (60%), under 2.5 2.52 (40%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.40, under 2.5 2.87. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.71 (59%), no 2.42 (41%). The market's averages: yes 1.57, no 2.26. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stockport County's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (50%). In Peterborough United's own 24 away matches read, 15 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 56% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.