Mansfield Town scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Oxford United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Mansfield Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Oxford United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Mansfield Town scores most in the 16-30 band (16 of 68); Mansfield Town concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 59); Oxford United scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 58); Oxford United concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Mansfield Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Oxford United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.3 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 58 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 11:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.