League One, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Bradford City and Stevenage finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 6th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Bradford City takes 1.06 points a game, Stevenage 1.12 -- nothing between them. +0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bradford City's favour: Bradford City takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stevenage 1.00 away. Bradford City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Stevenage scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 30%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Bradford City lands the first blow more often (27 of 50 to 23 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stevenage's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Bradford City finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 55 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Bradford City 1.14 goals expected, Stevenage 0.62, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Bradford City 2.07 (48%), the draw 3.16 (32%), Stevenage 5.01 (20%). The market's averages: 1.90, 3.30 and 3.93. The widest gap is on Stevenage: the market is shorter (3.93) than our 5.01 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 3.85 (26%), under 2.5 1.35 (74%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.20, under 2.5 1.65. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 3.18 (31%), no 1.46 (69%). The market's averages: yes 1.95, no 1.76. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Bradford City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stevenage's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 30% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.