Wigan Athletic scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Reading scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Wigan Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Reading is softest.
Wigan Athletic: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Reading: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wigan Athletic scores most in the 61-75 band (11 of 49); Wigan Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 67); Reading scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 82); Reading concedes most in the 61-75 band (15 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wigan Athletic -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 67 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Reading -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.3 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 82 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 82 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 62 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 8, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.