Wycombe Wanderers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Notts County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Notts County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Wycombe Wanderers is softest.
Wycombe Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Notts County: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wycombe Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 78); Wycombe Wanderers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 70); Notts County scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 74); Notts County concedes most in the 61-75 band (12 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wycombe Wanderers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 78 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 78 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 70 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 6, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Notts County -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 74 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 5 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.