Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Rochdale: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League. Gillingham: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Rochdale's numbers over its games, Gillingham's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Rochdale's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In Gillingham's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games.
The two sides
Rochdale -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 50 (40%); failed to score in 4 (8%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Rochdale's own 50 matches read: Rochdale or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Rochdale itself held the lead in 21, winning 19. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25.
Gillingham -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 50 (44%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 50 (54%). Away: 11 of its 25 (44%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Gillingham's own 50 matches read: Gillingham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Gillingham itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Built 06:10 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.