Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Newport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Grimsby Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newport County's numbers over its games, Grimsby Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newport County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Grimsby Town's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games.
The two sides
Newport County -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 13 of its 25 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 50 (18%); failed to score in 19 (38%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newport County's own 50 matches read: Newport County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Newport County itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Grimsby Town -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 9 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Grimsby Town's own 50 matches read: Grimsby Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Grimsby Town itself held the lead in 14, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.