Tranmere Rovers: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Walsall: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Tranmere Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 57); Tranmere Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 84); Walsall scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 62); Walsall concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Tranmere Rovers -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.6 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 57 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 84 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 84 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 50 read -- then won 10, drew 3, lost 4; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Walsall -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 13.
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 57 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.