Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record this leans a goals match.
York City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League. Gillingham: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- York City's numbers over its games, Gillingham's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In York City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 17 (68%). In Gillingham's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games.
The two sides
York City -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 36 of its own 50 (72%); over 1.5 in 45 (90%); over 3.5 in 25 (50%). At home: over 2.5 in 22 of its 25 (88%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 50 (36%); failed to score in 2 (4%).
Two goals clear
Counted over York City's own 50 matches read: York City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 29 (58%). York City itself held the lead in 24, winning 24. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 17 of 25.
Gillingham -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 10 of its 24 (42%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Gillingham's own 50 matches read: Gillingham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Gillingham itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.