Accrington Stanley scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Gillingham scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Accrington Stanley: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Gillingham: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Accrington Stanley scores most in the 1-15 band (10 of 57); Accrington Stanley concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 65); Gillingham scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 59); Gillingham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 79). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Accrington Stanley -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 26.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 57 (18%).
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 0 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Gillingham -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 59 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 79 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 79 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 10, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.