Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Crewe Alexandra: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Rochdale: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crewe Alexandra's numbers over its games, Rochdale's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crewe Alexandra's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Rochdale's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games.
The two sides
Crewe Alexandra -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 17 of its 25 (68%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 12 (24%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crewe Alexandra's own 50 matches read: Crewe Alexandra or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (30%). Crewe Alexandra itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 25.
Rochdale -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 5 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Rochdale's own 50 matches read: Rochdale or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Rochdale itself held the lead in 20, winning 18. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.