Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Newport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. York City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newport County's numbers over its games, York City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newport County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (56%). In York City's own 23 away matches read, 11 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games.
The two sides
Newport County -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 13 of its 25 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 18 (36%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newport County's own 50 matches read: Newport County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Newport County itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25.
York City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 36 of its own 50 (72%); over 1.5 in 45 (90%); over 3.5 in 24 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 23 (57%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 14 of its 23 (61%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 2 (4%).
Two goals clear
Counted over York City's own 50 matches read: York City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 29 (58%). York City itself held the lead in 24, winning 24. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 23.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.