Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 40% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 22%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Port Vale: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Chesterfield: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Port Vale's numbers over its games, Chesterfield's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Port Vale's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 5 (20%). In Chesterfield's own 25 away matches read, 6 (24%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 22% of games.
The two sides
Port Vale -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 50 (34%); over 1.5 in 27 (54%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 6 of its 25 (24%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 16 of its own 50 (32%). At home: 8 of its 25 (32%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 26 (52%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Port Vale's own 50 matches read: Port Vale or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (32%). Port Vale itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 25.
Chesterfield -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 17 of its 25 (68%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 50 (30%); failed to score in 7 (14%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chesterfield's own 50 matches read: Chesterfield or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (36%). Chesterfield itself held the lead in 12, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 25.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.