National League, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Solihull Moors the bigger side: 14th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Gateshead takes 1.06 points a game, Solihull Moors 1.69 -- the block form is Solihull Moors's. -0.08 points a game is the venue form gap, in Solihull Moors's favour: Gateshead takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Solihull Moors 1.12 away. Gateshead scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Solihull Moors scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Solihull Moors's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Gateshead is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 59%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Solihull Moors lands the first blow more often (25 of 50 to 21 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Solihull Moors's -- two goals clear in 13 of 50, against 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Gateshead's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Solihull Moors's hands -- ahead without winning in 13 of 50; Solihull Moors finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 74 after the 75th, and Gateshead concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Gateshead 1.18 goals expected, Solihull Moors 1.53, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Gateshead 3.42 (29%), the draw 3.95 (25%), Solihull Moors 2.20 (45%). The market's averages: 2.45, 3.40 and 2.40. The widest gap is on Gateshead: the market is shorter (2.45) than our 3.42 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.96 (51%), under 2.5 2.04 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.59, under 2.5 2.10. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 1.84 (54%), no 2.19 (46%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.45. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Gateshead's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 17 (71%). In Solihull Moors's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 59% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has since been played: it finished 1-1. Everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 17:10 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.