Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Altrincham: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. AFC Hornchurch: 9 league matches in the bank.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Altrincham's numbers over its games, AFC Hornchurch's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Altrincham's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In AFC Hornchurch's own 5 away matches read, 3 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games.
The two sides
Altrincham -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 16 of its 24 (67%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). At home: 16 of its 24 (67%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 50 (18%); failed to score in 10 (20%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Altrincham's own 50 matches read: Altrincham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Altrincham itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24.
AFC Hornchurch -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 5 of its own 9 (56%); over 1.5 in 5 (56%); over 3.5 in 2 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 5 (80%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 3 of its own 9 (33%). Away: 3 of its 5 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 3 of its own 9 (33%); failed to score in 3 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over AFC Hornchurch's own 9 matches read: AFC Hornchurch or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 4 (44%). AFC Hornchurch itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 3 of 5.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.