National League, game week 10 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Kidderminster Harriers is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.24 points a game is the venue form gap, in Kidderminster Harriers's favour: Kidderminster Harriers takes 2.20 a game at home over the last two seasons, Yeovil Town 0.96 away. Kidderminster Harriers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Yeovil Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 44% of their games, both teams scoring in 49%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 28%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (5 of 9 and 25 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Kidderminster Harriers's -- two goals clear in 3 of 9, against 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Yeovil Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Kidderminster Harriers finds its goals latest of all -- 4 of its 13 after the 75th; Yeovil Town finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 61 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Kidderminster Harriers 1.33 goals expected, Yeovil Town 0.77, from two seasons of scoring rates (5 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Kidderminster Harriers 2.00 (50%), the draw 3.53 (28%), Yeovil Town 4.64 (22%). The market's averages: 2.03, 3.32 and 3.20. The widest gap is on Yeovil Town: the market is shorter (3.20) than our 4.64 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.84 (35%), under 2.5 1.54 (65%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.85, under 2.5 1.90. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.53 (40%), no 1.65 (60%). The market's averages: yes 1.73, no 2.01. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Kidderminster Harriers's own 5 home matches read, one appeared in 1 (20%). In Yeovil Town's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 28% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.