Wealdstone: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Gateshead: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wealdstone scores most in the 61-75 band (18 of 72); Wealdstone concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 86); Gateshead scores most in the 1-15 band (11 of 52); Gateshead concedes most in the 76-90+ band (26 of 99). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wealdstone -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.6 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 18; 76-90+: 16.
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 17.
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 4 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Gateshead -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 2.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 11 of 52 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 99 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 26. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 26 of 99 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.