Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 45%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 36%. On the record this leans a goals match.
AFC Hornchurch: 10 league matches in the bank. Aldershot Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- AFC Hornchurch's numbers over its games, Aldershot Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In AFC Hornchurch's own 4 home matches read, one appeared in 1 (25%). In Aldershot Town's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 36% of games.
The two sides
AFC Hornchurch -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 6 of its own 10 (60%); over 1.5 in 6 (60%); over 3.5 in 2 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 1 of its 4 (25%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 3 of its own 10 (30%). At home: 0 of its 4 (0%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 3 of its own 10 (30%); failed to score in 4 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over AFC Hornchurch's own 10 matches read: AFC Hornchurch or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 5 (50%). AFC Hornchurch itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 1 of 4.
Aldershot Town -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aldershot Town's own 50 matches read: Aldershot Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Aldershot Town itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.