Barrow scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Scunthorpe United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Scunthorpe United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Barrow is softest.
Barrow: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League Two. Scunthorpe United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Barrow scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 56); Barrow concedes most in the 76-90+ band (26 of 86); Scunthorpe United scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 79); Scunthorpe United concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 73). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Barrow -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 56 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 26. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 26 of 86 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Scunthorpe United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 79 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 79 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 73 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 15.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 7 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 28 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.