National League, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Kidderminster Harriers is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.54 points a game is the venue form gap, in Boreham Wood's favour: Boreham Wood takes 2.29 a game at home over the last two seasons, Kidderminster Harriers 1.75 away. Boreham Wood scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Kidderminster Harriers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 60%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Boreham Wood lands the first blow more often (34 of 50 to 5 of 10); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Boreham Wood's -- two goals clear in 22 of 50, against 3 of 10; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Boreham Wood's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Boreham Wood finds its goals latest of all -- 28 of its 107 after the 75th; Kidderminster Harriers finds its goals latest of all -- 4 of its 13 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Boreham Wood 1.88 goals expected, Kidderminster Harriers 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 4 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Boreham Wood 1.97 (51%), the draw 4.44 (23%), Kidderminster Harriers 3.73 (27%). The market's averages: 1.35, 4.40 and 6.80. The widest gap is on Kidderminster Harriers: the market offers 6.80 against our 3.73. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.62 (62%), under 2.5 2.62 (38%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.33. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.62 (62%), no 2.63 (38%). The market's averages: yes 1.65, no 2.03. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Boreham Wood's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (46%). In Kidderminster Harriers's own 4 away matches read, 3 (75%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 60% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.