Fylde: 10 league matches in the bank. Carlisle United: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fylde scores most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 21); Fylde concedes most in the 76-90+ band (6 of 13); Carlisle United scores most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 92); Carlisle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 66). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fylde -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 10 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.5 against over 4.
When it scores
Of 21 scored across its own 10 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 4.
When it concedes
Of 13 conceded across its own 10 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 0; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 13 (46%).
The first goal
Scored first in 7 of its 10 read -- then won 5, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 3 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 10 read, winning 4 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Carlisle United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 92 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 92 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 66 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 66 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 36 of its 50 read -- then won 27, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 0 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.