National League, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Woking the bigger side: 10th against 14th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Woking takes 1.73 points a game, Solihull Moors 0.93 -- the block form is Woking's. +0.40 points a game is the venue form gap, in Woking's favour: Woking takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Solihull Moors 1.12 away. Woking scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Solihull Moors scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Woking's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Solihull Moors is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (25 of 50 and 27 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Woking's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Solihull Moors's hands -- ahead without winning in 14 of 50; Woking finds its goals latest of all -- 24 of its 79 after the 75th, and Solihull Moors concedes most in that same spell; Solihull Moors finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 75 after the 75th, and Woking concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Woking 1.80 goals expected, Solihull Moors 1.13, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Woking 1.89 (53%), the draw 4.32 (23%), Solihull Moors 4.19 (24%). The market's averages: 1.90, 3.65 and 3.55. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.65) than our 4.32 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.78 (56%), under 2.5 2.28 (44%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.29. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.77 (57%), no 2.30 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.51, no 2.36. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Woking's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Solihull Moors's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
This match has kicked off since these figures were built — everything above was read from before kick-off only.
Built 19:01 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.