Boston United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Gateshead: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Boston United scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 70); Boston United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 79); Gateshead scores most in the 1-15 band (10 of 49); Gateshead concedes most in the 76-90+ band (26 of 98). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Boston United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 70 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 79 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 79 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 6, lost 6; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 15.
Gateshead -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 2.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 10 of 49 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 98 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 26. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 26 of 98 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 2, lost 6; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 10:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.