Fylde scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hartlepool United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Hartlepool United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Fylde is softest.
Fylde: 14 league matches in the bank. Hartlepool United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fylde scores most in the 31-45+ band (7 of 24); Fylde concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 22); Hartlepool United scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 59); Hartlepool United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (27 of 75). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fylde -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 14 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.3 against over 6.
When it scores
Of 24 scored across its own 14 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 4.
When it concedes
Of 22 conceded across its own 14 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 22 (32%).
The first goal
Scored first in 8 of its 14 read -- then won 6, drew 1, lost 1; conceded first in 6 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 14 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 3.
Hartlepool United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.8 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 59 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 27. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 27 of 75 (36%).
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 5 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 10:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.