Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Aldershot Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Sutton United's numbers over its games, Aldershot Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sutton United's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Aldershot Town's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Sutton United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Sutton United's own 50 matches read: Sutton United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Sutton United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Aldershot Town -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). Away: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 50 (12%); failed to score in 14 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aldershot Town's own 50 matches read: Aldershot Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Aldershot Town itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Built 02:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.