Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 40% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 36%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Arbroath: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Queen's Park: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arbroath's numbers over its games, Queen's Park's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (38%). In Queen's Park's own 21 away matches read, 7 (33%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 36% of games.
The two sides
Arbroath -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 43 (42%); over 1.5 in 28 (65%); over 3.5 in 8 (19%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 21 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 43 (49%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 43 (28%); failed to score in 17 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arbroath's own 43 matches read: Arbroath or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (37%). Arbroath itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21.
Queen's Park -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 43 (37%); over 1.5 in 30 (70%); over 3.5 in 7 (16%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 21 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 43 (51%). Away: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 17 (40%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Queen's Park's own 43 matches read: Queen's Park or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (33%). Queen's Park itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 21.
Built 06:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.