Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 34% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Ayr United: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Stenhousemuir: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Ayr United's numbers over its games, Stenhousemuir's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games.
The two sides
Ayr United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 43 (37%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 7 (16%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 43 (58%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 12 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Ayr United's own 43 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (33%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 21.
Stenhousemuir -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 13 of its own 43 (30%); over 1.5 in 27 (63%); over 3.5 in 9 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 21 (19%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 16 of its own 43 (37%). Away: 7 of its 21 (33%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 23 of its own 43 (53%); failed to score in 8 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 43 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (42%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21.
Built 18:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.