Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Ayr United scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Arbroath's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest.
Arbroath: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Ayr United: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Arbroath scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 50); Arbroath concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (12 of 51); Ayr United concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Arbroath -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 49 read -- then won 14, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 49 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Ayr United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.3 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 51 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 61 (20%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 48 read -- then won 12, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.