Scottish Championship, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Partick Thistle the bigger side: 2nd against 6th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Queen's Park takes 0.57 points a game, Partick Thistle 2.00 -- the block form is Partick Thistle's. -0.29 points a game is the venue form gap, in Partick Thistle's favour: Queen's Park takes 1.17 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.46 away. Queen's Park scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 40% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Partick Thistle lands the first blow more often (28 of 49 to 12 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Partick Thistle's -- two goals clear in 13 of 49, against 1 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 49; Queen's Park finds its goals latest of all -- 12 of its 43 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen's Park 0.87 goals expected, Partick Thistle 1.29, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Queen's Park 3.98 (25%), the draw 3.49 (29%), Partick Thistle 2.16 (46%). The market's averages: 6.40, 4.40 and 1.31. The widest gap is on Queen's Park: the market offers 6.40 against our 3.98. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.74 (37%), under 2.5 1.58 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.60, under 2.5 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.38 (42%), no 1.73 (58%). The market's averages: yes 1.83, no 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen's Park's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (29%). In Partick Thistle's own 24 away matches read, 8 (33%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.