Scottish League One, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Ross County is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.35 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Fife's favour: East Fife takes 1.30 a game at home over the last two seasons, Ross County 0.95 away. East Fife scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Ross County scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 49% of their games, both teams scoring in 43%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Ross County lands the first blow more often (17 of 40 to 13 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Ross County's -- two goals clear in 10 of 40, against 2 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in East Fife's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ross County's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 40.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: East Fife 1.23 goals expected, Ross County 0.93, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Ross County's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: East Fife 2.32 (43%), the draw 3.45 (29%), Ross County 3.58 (28%). The market's averages: 6.00, 2.20 and 2.00. The widest gap is on East Fife: the market offers 6.00 against our 2.32. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.72 (37%), under 2.5 1.58 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.87, under 2.5 1.90. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.33 (43%), no 1.75 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.92, no 1.80. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In East Fife's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (32%). In Ross County's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:28 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.