Scottish League One, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Cove Rangers and Hamilton Academical finished near neighbours last season -- 7th and 5th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Cove Rangers takes 1.06 points a game, Hamilton Academical 2.06 -- the block form is Hamilton Academical's. -0.37 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hamilton Academical's favour: Cove Rangers takes 1.17 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hamilton Academical 1.54 away. Cove Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 41%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hamilton Academical lands the first blow more often (30 of 49 to 16 of 47); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hamilton Academical's -- two goals clear in 18 of 49, against 7 of 47; Cove Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 51 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Cove Rangers 0.93 goals expected, Hamilton Academical 1.36, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Cove Rangers 3.89 (26%), the draw 3.62 (28%), Hamilton Academical 2.14 (47%). The market's averages: 5.03, 3.65 and 1.62. The widest gap is on Cove Rangers: the market offers 5.03 against our 3.89. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.49 (40%), under 2.5 1.67 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.86, under 2.5 1.81. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.22 (45%), no 1.82 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.85, no 1.81. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Cove Rangers's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Hamilton Academical's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.