Montrose scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; East Fife scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Montrose's strongest scoring spell is exactly where East Fife is softest.
Montrose: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. East Fife: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Montrose scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 65); Montrose concedes most in the 61-75 band (20 of 87); East Fife scores most in the 46-60 band (10 of 41); East Fife concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 75). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Montrose -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.9 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 87 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 20; 76-90+: 18.
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 49 read -- then won 14, drew 8, lost 0; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 49 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
East Fife -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 49 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.6 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 41 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 41 (24%). (1 of its 49 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
When it concedes
Of 75 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 13. (1 of its 49 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.)
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 48 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 48 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 02:26 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.