Stranraer scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Stirling Albion scores heaviest in 61-75 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Stranraer's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stirling Albion is softest.
Stranraer: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season. Stirling Albion: 48 league matches in the bank, 12 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Stranraer scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 69); Stranraer concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 55); Stirling Albion scores most in the 61-75 band (16 of 65); Stirling Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (28 of 89). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Stranraer -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.0 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 69 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10.
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 48 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 48 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Stirling Albion -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.9 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.1 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 65 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 89 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 28; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 48 read -- then won 11, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 21, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 02:26 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.