Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 41%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 57%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Motherwell: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Aberdeen: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Motherwell's numbers over its games, Aberdeen's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Motherwell's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Aberdeen's own 21 away matches read, 13 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 57% of games.
The two sides
Motherwell -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 43 (42%); over 1.5 in 32 (74%); over 3.5 in 12 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 43 (47%). At home: 7 of its 21 (33%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 43 (47%); failed to score in 9 (21%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Motherwell's own 43 matches read: Motherwell or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (44%). Motherwell itself held the lead in 16, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
Aberdeen -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 43 (35%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 9 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 15 of its own 43 (35%). Away: 5 of its 21 (24%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 43 (26%); failed to score in 20 (47%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aberdeen's own 43 matches read: Aberdeen or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (49%). Aberdeen itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 21.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.