Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 35% of their games, both teams scoring in 35%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a tight match.
Aberdeen: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. St. Mirren: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Aberdeen's numbers over its games, St. Mirren's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aberdeen's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (35%). In St. Mirren's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games.
The two sides
Aberdeen -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 46 (35%); over 1.5 in 33 (72%); over 3.5 in 10 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 23 (35%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 16 of its own 46 (35%). At home: 10 of its 23 (43%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 46 (26%); failed to score in 21 (46%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aberdeen's own 46 matches read: Aberdeen or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (48%). Aberdeen itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 23.
St. Mirren -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 46 (35%); over 1.5 in 31 (67%); over 3.5 in 8 (17%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 23 (39%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 16 of its own 46 (35%). Away: 11 of its 23 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 46 (26%); failed to score in 21 (46%).
Two goals clear
Counted over St. Mirren's own 46 matches read: St. Mirren or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (46%). St. Mirren itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.