Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 27%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Burnley W: 3 league matches in the bank. Bristol City Women: 25 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Burnley W's numbers over its games, Bristol City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley W's own 1 home matches read, one appeared in 0 (0%). In Bristol City Women's own 13 away matches read, 7 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 27% of games.
The two sides
Burnley W -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 2 of its own 3 (67%); over 1.5 in 2 (67%); over 3.5 in 0 (0%). At home: over 2.5 in 1 of its 1 (100%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 1 of its own 3 (33%). At home: 1 of its 1 (100%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 3 (33%); failed to score in 2 (67%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Burnley W's own 3 matches read: Burnley W or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 1 (33%). Burnley W itself held the lead in 0. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 0 of 1.
Bristol City Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 25 (72%); over 1.5 in 22 (88%); over 3.5 in 12 (48%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 13 (77%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 15 of its own 25 (60%). Away: 10 of its 13 (77%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 25 (24%); failed to score in 4 (16%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Bristol City Women's own 25 matches read: Bristol City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (56%). Bristol City Women itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 13.
Built 17:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.