Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Chelsea Women: 22 league matches in the bank, all from last season. Aston Villa Ladies: 22 league matches in the bank, all from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea Women's numbers over its games, Aston Villa Ladies's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea Women's own 11 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (55%). In Aston Villa Ladies's own 11 away matches read, 4 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Chelsea Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 10 of its own 22 (45%); over 1.5 in 18 (82%); over 3.5 in 7 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 4 of its 11 (36%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 11 of its own 22 (50%). At home: 3 of its 11 (27%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 22 (41%); failed to score in 2 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea Women's own 22 matches read: Chelsea Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (59%). Chelsea Women itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 11.
Aston Villa Ladies -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 22 (68%); over 1.5 in 18 (82%); over 3.5 in 8 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 11 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 14 of its own 22 (64%). Away: 8 of its 11 (73%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 22 (27%); failed to score in 5 (23%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aston Villa Ladies's own 22 matches read: Aston Villa Ladies or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 11 (50%). Aston Villa Ladies itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 4 of 11.
Built 06:09 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.