Match result
Our tissue: Charlton Athletic Ladies 1.78 (56%), the draw 3.88 (26%), Liverpool Women 5.50 (18%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off.
Charlton Athletic Ladies v Liverpool Women
Women's Super League, game week 1 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The appraisal
Charlton Athletic Ladies is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.64 points a game is the venue form gap, in Charlton Athletic Ladies's favour: Charlton Athletic Ladies takes 2.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Liverpool Women 0.45 away. Charlton Athletic Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Liverpool Women scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a tight match.
How it may unfold
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Charlton Athletic Ladies lands the first blow more often (12 of 22 to 8 of 22); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Charlton Athletic Ladies's -- two goals clear in 6 of 22, against 4 of 22; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Liverpool Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 22.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Charlton Athletic Ladies 1.53 goals expected, Liverpool Women 0.75, from two seasons of scoring rates (11 home matches and 11 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Charlton Athletic Ladies's figures include last season in the Women's Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our numbers against the market’s
Over or under 2.5 goals
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.52 (40%), under 2.5 1.66 (60%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
Both teams to score
Our tissue: yes 2.43 (41%), no 1.70 (59%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
The 2UP fact
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Charlton Athletic Ladies's own 11 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (55%). In Liverpool Women's own 11 away matches read, 4 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:09 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.