Women's Super League, game week 4 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Liverpool Women and Everton Women finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 8th of 12 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Liverpool Women takes 1.11 points a game, Everton Women 1.89 -- the block form is Everton Women's. -0.22 points a game is the venue form gap, in Everton Women's favour: Liverpool Women takes 1.08 a game at home over the last two seasons, Everton Women 1.31 away. Liverpool Women scores heaviest in the 1-15 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Liverpool Women's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Everton Women is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (9 of 25 and 10 of 25); Everton Women is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (7 of its 38 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Liverpool Women's -- two goals clear in 5 of 25, against 1 of 25; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Liverpool Women's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 25; Everton Women finds its goals latest of all -- 9 of its 27 after the 75th, and Liverpool Women concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Liverpool Women 1.11 goals expected, Everton Women 1.19, from two seasons of scoring rates (12 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Liverpool Women 2.96 (34%), the draw 3.53 (28%), Everton Women 2.64 (38%). The market's averages: 1.78, 3.50 and 4.14. The widest gap is on Everton Women: the market offers 4.14 against our 2.64. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.47 (40%), under 2.5 1.68 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.91, under 2.5 1.85. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.14 (47%), no 1.88 (53%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool Women's own 12 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (50%). In Everton Women's own 13 away matches read, 3 (23%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.