Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Arsenal Women: 27 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Birmingham City Women: 27 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Women's Championship.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal Women's numbers over its games, Birmingham City Women's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal Women's own 13 home matches read, one appeared in 4 (31%). In Birmingham City Women's own 14 away matches read, 8 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games.
The two sides
Arsenal Women -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 12 of its own 27 (44%); over 1.5 in 18 (67%); over 3.5 in 10 (37%). At home: over 2.5 in 5 of its 13 (38%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 13 of its own 27 (48%). At home: 6 of its 13 (46%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 27 (48%); failed to score in 5 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal Women's own 27 matches read: Arsenal Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (44%). Arsenal Women itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 4 of 13.
Birmingham City Women -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 27 (67%); over 1.5 in 23 (85%); over 3.5 in 10 (37%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 14 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 14 of its own 27 (52%). Away: 5 of its 14 (36%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 27 (30%); failed to score in 5 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Birmingham City Women's own 27 matches read: Birmingham City Women or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (63%). Birmingham City Women itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 14.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.