Match result
Our tissue: Charlton Athletic Ladies 4.55 (22%), the draw 3.94 (25%), Manchester United Women 1.90 (53%). The market's averages: ?, ? and ?. Not every market price is recorded yet -- check nearer kick-off.
Charlton Athletic Ladies v Manchester United Women
Women's Super League, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The appraisal
Charlton Athletic Ladies is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.05 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester United Women's favour: Charlton Athletic Ladies takes 1.64 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester United Women 1.69 away. Charlton Athletic Ladies scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester United Women scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Charlton Athletic Ladies's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Manchester United Women is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 59%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
How it may unfold
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (13 of 27 and 12 of 27); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Manchester United Women's -- two goals clear in 9 of 27, against 6 of 27; Manchester United Women finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 43 after the 75th, and Charlton Athletic Ladies concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Charlton Athletic Ladies 0.91 goals expected, Manchester United Women 1.57, from two seasons of scoring rates (14 home matches and 13 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Charlton Athletic Ladies's figures include last season in the Women's Championship, where goals came against different company.
Our numbers against the market’s
Over or under 2.5 goals
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.22 (45%), under 2.5 1.82 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.60, under 2.5 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Both teams to score
Our tissue: yes 2.11 (47%), no 1.90 (53%). The market has not recorded both sides of this line yet.
The 2UP fact
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Charlton Athletic Ladies's own 14 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (57%). In Manchester United Women's own 13 away matches read, 8 (62%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 59% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 00:06 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.