Wrexham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Birmingham City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Birmingham City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Wrexham is softest.
Wrexham: 48 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Birmingham City: 48 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wrexham scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 71); Wrexham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 67); Birmingham City scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 59); Birmingham City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 58). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wrexham -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.6 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 71 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 67 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 48 read -- then won 14, drew 9, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 48 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12.
Birmingham City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 59 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 48 read -- then won 16, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 48 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 00:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.