Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Burnley: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Bristol City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Burnley's numbers over its games, Bristol City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Bristol City's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games.
The two sides
Burnley -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 42 (52%); over 1.5 in 36 (86%); over 3.5 in 18 (43%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 42 (62%). At home: 10 of its 21 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 4 of its own 42 (10%); failed to score in 14 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Burnley's own 42 matches read: Burnley or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (62%). Burnley itself held the lead in 3, winning 3. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 21.
Bristol City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 50 (48%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 16 (32%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Bristol City's own 50 matches read: Bristol City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Bristol City itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.