Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Bristol City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Bristol City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest.
Burnley: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Bristol City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Burnley scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 43); Burnley concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 85); Bristol City scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 66); Bristol City concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Burnley -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 43 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 43 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 85 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 17.
The first goal
Scored first in 9 of its 42 read -- then won 3, drew 2, lost 4; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 42 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 23, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Bristol City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.