Stoke City v Charlton Athletic

The appraisal

Stoke City and Charlton Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 17th and 20th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Stoke City takes 1.57 points a game, Charlton Athletic 1.53 -- nothing between them. +0.40 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stoke City's favour: Stoke City takes 1.44 a game at home over the last two seasons, Charlton Athletic 1.04 away. Stoke City scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Charlton Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Charlton Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stoke City is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 43% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record this leans a tight match.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (23 of 50 and 24 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Stoke City's -- two goals clear in 11 of 50, against 6 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stoke City's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Charlton Athletic's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Charlton Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 50 after the 75th, and Stoke City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: Stoke City 1.40 goals expected, Charlton Athletic 1.01, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: Stoke City 2.17 (46%), the draw 3.71 (27%), Charlton Athletic 3.70 (27%). The market's averages: 2.15, 3.25 and 3.50. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 2.31 (43%), under 2.5 1.76 (57%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.17, under 2.5 1.67. Close to our view -- no argument either way.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 2.09 (48%), no 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: yes 1.88, no 1.83. Close to our view -- no argument either way.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stoke City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Charlton Athletic's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

Built 06:38 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.