West Bromwich Albion scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Watford scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Watford's strongest scoring spell is exactly where West Bromwich Albion is softest.
West Bromwich Albion: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Watford: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: West Bromwich Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 55); West Bromwich Albion concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 64); Watford scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 57); Watford concedes most in the 16-30 band (16 of 70). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
West Bromwich Albion -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 55 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 55 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 64 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 64 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Watford -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 15 of its 50 read -- then won 9, drew 6, lost 0; conceded first in 33 -- pulled back 6 wins and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 27 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 06:39 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.