Birmingham City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Wolverhampton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Birmingham City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Birmingham City scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 62); Birmingham City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 60); Wolverhampton Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (10 of 38); Wolverhampton Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 76). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Birmingham City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 62 (19%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8.
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 42 league matches; away, 0.6 for and 1.9 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 38 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 38 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 76 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 16.
The first goal
Scored first in 10 of its 42 read -- then won 4, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 42 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 20, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 06:40 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.