Championship, game week 6 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
Lincoln City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Lincoln City's favour: Bristol City takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Lincoln City 2.04 away. Bristol City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Lincoln City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Bristol City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Lincoln City is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Lincoln City lands the first blow more often (36 of 50 to 20 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Lincoln City's -- two goals clear in 20 of 50, against 12 of 50; Bristol City finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 65 after the 75th, and Lincoln City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Bristol City 0.98 goals expected, Lincoln City 1.71, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Lincoln City's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company.
Our tissue: Bristol City 4.61 (22%), the draw 4.17 (24%), Lincoln City 1.84 (54%). The market's averages: 1.98, 3.60 and 3.60. The widest gap is on Lincoln City: the market offers 3.60 against our 1.84. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are.
Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.85, under 2.5 1.89. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 1.95 (51%), no 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.01. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Bristol City's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (62%). In Lincoln City's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.