+0.28 points a game is the venue form gap, in Middlesbrough's favour: Middlesbrough takes 1.84 a game at home over the last two seasons, Millwall 1.56 away.
Middlesbrough: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Millwall: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so.
The two sides
Middlesbrough -- at home
Its record at the relevant venue
This season at home: won 3, drew 0, lost 0 of 3, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 10, drew 7, lost 5 of 22, scoring 32 and conceding 18 -- 1.68 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: beat Norwich City 4-3 at home; beat Queens Park Rangers 1-0 away; drew with Burnley 1-1 away; beat West Bromwich Albion 3-1 at home; lost to Blackburn Rovers 1-2 away.
The dugout
The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 32 matches with one recorded (23, 9 apiece), most recently Kim Hellberg with 23. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Millwall -- away
Its record at the relevant venue
This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Last season away: won 9, drew 9, lost 4 of 22, scoring 28 and conceding 23 -- 1.64 points a game.
Its last five league matches
Newest first: lost to Blackburn Rovers 1-3 away; beat Bolton Wanderers 4-0 at home; lost to Wrexham 0-3 at home; lost to Southampton 1-5 away; beat Norwich City 3-0 at home.
The dugout
Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Alex Neil. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.