Middlesbrough scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Millwall scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Millwall's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Middlesbrough is softest.
Middlesbrough: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Millwall: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Middlesbrough scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 76); Middlesbrough concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 55); Millwall scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 72); Millwall concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 56). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Middlesbrough -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 0.9 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 76 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 55 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Millwall -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 72 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 56 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.